TI cuts Q2 outlook; blames Nokia

TI cuts Q2 outlook; blames Nokia

"The Times They are a Changing"

- Bob Dylan

There was a time when I had debated with some colleagues the value of strategically focusing on Apple. Motorola's RAZR was the fashion hit of the wireless world. After conquering Motorola design wins we need to capture share at Nokia. They define the cell phone world....

Well, Nokia is still big. But, one of the problems in technology marketing can be lack of vision. "Smart phones only had 5% of the global market. Who would pay such a premium for an iPhone. Apple only has 3-5% of the computing market..."

I will avoid the over-used, 'Hindsight is 20/20,' rejoinder. We often look at social and economic trends. Just as important are technology trends. It's not about technology for the sake of technology. Look for the intersection of enabling technologies that support the social, economic, and market trends.

E.g. The iPad was Apple's biggest flop...when it was called the Newton in the 1990s. The technologies enabling it to become an industry defining product had not yet been developed.  Success came when the enabling technologies were available and intersected with the market.

But, isn't this about TI and Nokia? Yes, TI is fortunate to have such a big piece of such a huge player (as measured in units). But, the technology driving products are coming from Apple, Samsung, and LG. Sometimes what makes a company successful is what later holds it back. Nokia is finally admitting that their OS doesn't cut it anymore. RIM (Blackberry) is finally embracing touchscreen technology. What made Palm (formerly 3Com, formerly U.S. Robotics) an industry defining company is what killed it. They kept it simple and did a great job at not being all things to all applications. But, the intersection of essential enabling technology has now allowed iPhone to be so much more. Monochrome is dead.  We live in a world of vivid color.

This isn't just a Tech Sector issue; think Auto industry. While the U.S. automotive industry was losing the war with Japan, they missed the challenges now emerging from Korea. And then there was that whole energy efficient hybrid which makes up only a couple of % of the total market...hmmm...that sounds like the smartphone market 5 years ago. But, that market is still changing. New battery technology and regenerative energy designs will enable fully electric vehicles.

Where was I...oh yes, TI and Nokia. Well let's just say:

"If you don't like change, you are going to like irrelevance even less."

General Eric Shinseki, Chief of Staff, U.S. Army